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Selected Office Market Data Change Since Start of Recession November 16, 2009
Chicago and a few other office markets report a trend toward companies relocating from the suburbs to the city in recent years. Since the recession began at the end of 2007, average U.S. vacancy rates have risen more slowly in CBD markets than in suburban markets, up 3.0 percentage points to 13.9 percent in CBDs versus an increase of 4.7 percentage points in the suburbs where current vacancy sits at a precariously high 18.7 percent. This seems to suggest that CBDs have been more resilient in the current downturn. But this is misleading because occupied space has fallen more steeply in CBDs during this period, meaning that negative net absorption has been proportionally greater. Strong construction pipelines are responsible for the sharper increase in suburban vacancy rates. The total inventory of space increased by 3.5 percent in the suburbs but only 1.3 percent in CBDs since year-end 2007. Over time, downtown office markets and other areas served by good transit systems are likely to fare better in a world of rising oil prices and tight household budgets. But evidence from the last two years – which featured high oil prices until mid-2008 and rising prices through 2009 – does not yet support that broad conclusion.
Source: Grubb & Ellis
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2010 Forecast Media Preview
Grubb & Ellis experts previewed the company's 2010 commercial real estate forecast on Nov. 18. To replay this event, click here.
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